How US AI-chip export rules changed
How did the US replace global tiers for AI-chip exports with negotiated, deal-by-deal access, and how did China respond?
Washington dropped its tiered AI Diffusion Rule in 2025 and replaced it with country deals, case-by-case China licences with conditions and approved-entity lists. Beijing answered with security and antitrust pressure on NVIDIA, rare-earth export controls and a domestic chip push. Smuggling cases show where chips still leak through.
KeyStoryRule or law
- Firebird signs Kazakhstan AI factory deal backed by US licence for 45,000 NVIDIA GPUs
Deal-by-deal access reaches Central Asia: a US licence for 45,000 Grace Blackwell GPUs under an agreement with Kazakhstan’s government.
- DeepSeek and MiniMax register under China’s new AI export rules, state media says
Within a week DeepSeek and MiniMax register and keep releasing open weights; state media says most AI technology stays exportable.
- China proposes export controls on 23 AI technologies and starts pre-export registration
Beijing proposes export controls on AI model, agent and cluster technology itself, with registration from day one.
- US moves UAE into top export tier, allowing licence-free AI chip exports to approved users
The approved-entity template for trusted partners is written into the rules.
- US charges Supermicro co-founder over alleged $2.5bn NVIDIA-server diversion to China
Enforcement against the grey market for newer chips.
- NVIDIA restarts H200 production after Chinese orders and first US licence
Sales resume only once both governments approve.
- Rule, In forceUSBIS H200 case-by-case rule
The rule that lets H200-class chips go to China case by case, with conditions.
- China adds extraterritorial rare-earth export controls, then pauses them to Nov 2026
China uses its own export controls on rare earths, then pauses them until November 2026.
- China’s market regulator preliminarily finds NVIDIA breached antitrust law over Mellanox deal
Antitrust becomes a second lever over NVIDIA during trade talks.
- China’s internet regulator summons NVIDIA over alleged security risks in H20 chips
Beijing questions the security of the US chips Washington lets it buy.
- Stargate UAE: 1GW OpenAI cluster planned in Abu Dhabi, first 200MW due in 2026
Chip access becomes part of a bilateral investment deal with the UAE.
- US scraps AI Diffusion Rule and warns against using Huawei Ascend chips
The starting point: the global tier system is scrapped and Huawei Ascend chips are flagged.
- US controls high-bandwidth memory and 24 chip tools, and lists 140 more entities
In December 2024 the US added high-bandwidth memory and more chipmaking tools to its China controls.
- US tightens AI chip and chipmaking tool export rules and adds 13 Chinese entities
The October 2023 rules tightened the chip and tool controls the later rules build on.
Related developments
Connected developments not on this line
- DevelopmentUS opens case-by-case H200 licences for China and adds 25% tariff on such chips15 Jan 2026, Rule change, United States, China
- DevelopmentOpenAI, SoftBank, Oracle and MGX launch $500bn Stargate data-centre venture21 Jan 2025, Deal, United States
- DevelopmentChina’s market regulator opens antitrust probe into NVIDIA over Mellanox deal9 Dec 2024, Enforcement or court case, China
- Development16 AI companies sign Frontier AI Safety Commitments at the AI Seoul Summit21 May 2024, Statement, International, South Korea
- DevelopmentMicrosoft invests $1.5bn in Abu Dhabi’s G42 and moves it onto Azure15 Apr 2024, Deal, United Arab Emirates, United States
- DevelopmentChina puts gallium and germanium exports under licence from 1 August 20233 Jul 2023, Rule change, China