Lines of Thought

Who supplies the AI-first military?

Which companies are becoming the AI suppliers to Western militaries, and on what terms?

Between 2025 and 2026 the Pentagon and NATO moved from pilots to enterprise-scale deals with Palantir, Google, OpenAI and xAI, while the Anthropic dispute showed the price of setting usage limits. This line traces the vendor map and the contract terms that came with it.

  1. ProcurementDefenceINTL
    NATO buys Palantir's Maven Smart System for its operational headquarters

    NATO's operational HQ buys a commercial AI targeting and decision-support system in six months.

  2. ProcurementDefenceUS
    Pentagon AI office awards Anthropic, Google, OpenAI and xAI up to $200m each

    Four frontier labs get up to $200m each for agentic military workflows.

    Also on The Pentagon, the labs and the limits on use

  3. ProcurementDefenceUS
    US Army folds 75 Palantir contracts into one deal worth up to $10bn

    The Army consolidates 75 Palantir contracts into a $10bn, ten-year vehicle.

  4. LaunchDefenceUS
    Department of War launches GenAI.mil with Google's Gemini for Government

    Gemini becomes the first model on a platform for 3 million personnel.

  5. DealDefenceUS
    OpenAI agrees to deploy its models on Department of War classified networks

    OpenAI wins classified work by enforcing limits through architecture and contract.

    Also on The Pentagon, the labs and the limits on use

  6. Enforcement or rulingDefenceUS
    Appeals court upholds Pentagon's supply-chain-risk label on Anthropic

    An appeals court lets the military's designation stand.

    Also on The Pentagon, the labs and the limits on use, Procurement as AI policy

Where this line could go next

Connected developments not on this line