# From diffusion rule to chip deals

> How did US AI-chip export policy shift from global tiers to negotiated, deal-by-deal access, and how did China push back?

Washington dropped its tiered AI Diffusion Rule in 2025 and replaced it with country deals, revenue-linked China licences and approved-entity lists. Beijing answered with security and antitrust pressure on NVIDIA, rare-earth leverage and a domestic chip push, while smuggling cases show the leaks in between.

## Stops
1. **13 May 2025: US scraps AI Diffusion Rule and warns against using Huawei Ascend chips** (Development) The starting point: the global tier system is scrapped and Huawei Ascend chips are flagged. [page](https://wheresthe.ai/d/us-bis-rescinds-ai-diffusion-rule-2025-05/) · [source](https://www.bis.gov/press-release/department-commerce-rescinds-biden-era-artificial-intelligence-diffusion-rule-strengthens-chip-related)
2. **22 May 2025: Stargate UAE: 1GW OpenAI cluster planned in Abu Dhabi, first 200MW due in 2026** (Development) Chip access becomes part of a bilateral investment deal with the UAE. [page](https://wheresthe.ai/d/ae-stargate-uae-2025-05/) · [source](https://openai.com/index/introducing-stargate-uae/)
3. **31 Jul 2025: China's internet regulator summons NVIDIA over alleged security risks in H20 chips** (Development) Beijing questions the security of the US chips Washington lets it buy. [page](https://wheresthe.ai/d/cn-cac-summons-nvidia-h20-2025-07/) · [source](https://www.thepaper.cn/newsDetail_forward_31271551)
4. **15 Sep 2025: China's market regulator finds preliminary NVIDIA antitrust breach over Mellanox deal** (Development) Antitrust becomes a second lever over NVIDIA during trade talks. [page](https://wheresthe.ai/d/cn-samr-nvidia-antitrust-finding-2025-09/) · [source](https://www.fortune.com/2025/09/15/china-nvidia-mellanox-antitrust-trade-trump-tariffs-talks-beijing-washington)
5. **9 Oct 2025: China adds extraterritorial rare-earth export controls, then pauses them to Nov 2026** (Development) China shows its own export-control leverage, then pauses it to November 2026. [page](https://wheresthe.ai/d/cn-rare-earth-export-controls-2025-10/) · [source](https://pillsburylaw.com/en/news-and-insights/china-suspends-export-controls-certain-critical-minerals-related-items.html)
6. **15 Jan 2026: BIS H200 case-by-case rule** (Rule) The rule that lets H200-class chips go to China case by case, with conditions. [page](https://wheresthe.ai/rule/us-bis-advanced-computing-license-policy-2026/) · [source](https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2026/01/15/2026-00789/revision-to-license-review-policy-for-advanced-computing-commodities)
7. **17 Mar 2026: NVIDIA restarts H200 production after Chinese orders and first US licence** (Development) Sales resume only once both governments approve. [page](https://wheresthe.ai/d/cn-nvidia-restarts-h200-for-china-2026-03/) · [source](https://tomshardware.com/tech-industry/nvidia-has-received-pos-from-chinese-customers)
8. **19 Mar 2026: US charges Supermicro co-founder over alleged $2.5bn Nvidia-server diversion to China** (Development) Enforcement against the grey market for newer chips. [page](https://wheresthe.ai/d/us-supermicro-cofounder-smuggling-charges-2026-03/) · [source](https://fortune.com/2026/03/19/supermicro-arrested-founder-smuggling-gpu-china/)
9. **10 Jul 2026: US moves UAE into top export tier, opening licence-free AI chips to approved users** (Development) The approved-entity template for trusted partners is written into the rules. [page](https://wheresthe.ai/d/ae-uae-moved-to-country-group-a5-2026-07/) · [source](https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/FR-2026-07-14/html/2026-14132.htm)
10. **China** (Country) See China's wider AI rulebook alongside its chip strategy. [page](https://wheresthe.ai/j/cn/)

---
Canonical page: https://wheresthe.ai/line/chip-export-deals-not-rules/ · A Line of Thought from wheresthe.ai